5.2

The Phillips Curve

AP Macroeconomics

The short-run Phillips Curve (SRPC)

12345678910111212345678Unemployment Rate (%)Inflation Rate (%)Point ASRPC

The short-run Phillips Curve: inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment

Why the trade-off exists

The long-run Phillips Curve (LRPC)

12345678910111212345678Unemployment Rate (%)Inflation Rate (%)NRU = 5%SRPCLRPC

The LRPC is vertical at the natural rate of unemployment

Movement along vs. shift of the SRPC

Movement along the SRPC

Shift of the SRPC

123456789101112123456789Unemployment Rate (%)Inflation Rate (%)SRPC₁SRPC₂ (higher expected inflation)LRPC

Higher expected inflation shifts the entire SRPC upward

Connecting AD-AS to the Phillips Curve

Stagflation on the Phillips Curve

The expectations-augmented Phillips Curve

12345678910123456789Unemployment Rate (%)Inflation Rate (%)ABCSRPC₁ (πe = 2%)SRPC₂ (πe = 4%)SRPC₃ (πe = 6%)LRPC

Attempting to keep unemployment at 3% causes accelerating inflation as expectations adjust

Long-run adjustment

Shifts of the LRPC

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